Evaluation of scientific and technical performance and social efficiency of research and development. Evaluation of scientific and scientific and technical effectiveness of research Method of the average cost of functional elements
The result of research is the achievement of a scientific, scientific-technical, economic, social effect.
scientific effect characterizes the acquisition of new scientific knowledge and reflects the growth of information intended for internal scientific consumption. Scientific and technical effect characterizes the possibility of using the results of ongoing research in other research or development work and provides information necessary to create new technology. Economical effect is characterized by savings of living and materialized labor in social production, expressed in terms of cost, obtained by using the results of applied research. Social effect is manifested in the improvement of working conditions, the improvement of environmental characteristics, the development of health care, culture, science, education, etc.
Quantifying scientific effect it is advisable to produce by calculating the coefficients of scientific and scientific and technical performance. A qualitative analysis of possible types of R&D effect consists in comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the results obtained in the form of "higher - lower", "better - worse", "more - less".
The evaluation of the scientific and scientific and technical effectiveness of R&D of a theoretical nature is carried out using coefficients calculated by the formulas:
Кнр = ∑ m Кзнi * Кдуi (3.1)
Kntr \u003d ∑ n Kzni * Kdui (3.2)
where Кнр, Кнр – coefficients of scientific and scientific and technical effectiveness, respectively;
Кзнi - coefficient of significance of the i -th factor used for evaluation;
Kdui - the coefficient of the achieved level of the i -th factor;
m and n - respectively, the number of factors of scientific and scientific and technical effectiveness.
As factors in assessing scientific performance, the novelty of the results obtained, the depth of scientific study, the degree of probability of success, etc., can be taken, while in assessing scientific and technical effectiveness - the prospects for use, the scale of implementation, the completeness of the results obtained, etc. ).
Table 3.1 - Characteristics of the factors and signs of the scientific effectiveness of R&D
| Scientific performance factor | Factor of significance of the factor, Kzn | The quality of the factor of scientific novelty | Factor characteristic | |
| Novelty of the obtained or expected results | 0,5 | Novelty high | Fundamentally new results, previously unknown to science, have been obtained, a new technology has been created, a new regularity has been discovered | 1,0 |
| Novelty average | Some general patterns, methods, ways to create fundamentally new types of equipment have been established. | 0,7 | ||
| Novelty is not enough | A positive solution to the tasks set on the basis of simple messages, analysis of relationships between facts. Extending unknown scientific principles to scientific objects | 0,3 | ||
| Novelty is trivial | Description of individual elementary facts, transmission and dissemination of previously obtained results, abstract reviews | 0,1 | ||
| Depth of scientific study | 0,35 | The depth of scientific study is high | Complicated theoretical calculations are performed, the results are verified on a large amount of experimental data | 1,0 |
| The depth of scientific study is average | The complexity of theoretical calculations is not high. The results are verified on a limited amount of experimental data. | 0,6 | ||
| The depth of scientific study is insufficient | Theoretical calculations are simple, experimental verification has not been carried out | 0,1 | ||
| Degree of probability of success | 0,15 | Greater chance of success | Success is very possible, there is a high probability of a positive solution to the tasks | 1,0 |
| Moderate chance of success | The tasks set are theoretically and technically feasible, success is possible | 0,6 | ||
| Low chance of success | Theoretically feasible, but the idea is risky, success is very doubtful | 0,1 |
For each of the factors, the values of the coefficients of significance and the achieved level for this factor are established by expert means. The sum of the significance coefficients must be equal to 1.0. The coefficients of the achieved level of each factor are less than 1.0 and the closer they are to 1.0, the higher the scientific and scientific and technical effectiveness of R&D.
Table 3.2 - Characteristics of the factors and features of the scientific and technical effectiveness of the graduation project
| Factor of scientific and technical effectiveness | Factor of significance of the factor, Kzn | Factor quality | Factor characteristic | Coefficient of achieved level, Kdu |
| Prospects for using the results | 0,5 | Paramount importance | The results can be used in many scientific areas and are important for the development of related sciences | 1,0 |
| Important | The results will be used in a specific scientific direction in the development of new technical solutions aimed at significantly increasing the productivity of social labor in the national economy | 0,8 | ||
| Useful | The results will be used in a specific sector of the national economy | 0,5 | ||
| Scale of possible realization of results | 0,3 | National economic scale | 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 | |
| Industry scale | Implementation time, years: Up to 3 up to 5 up to 10 over 10 | 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 | ||
| Individual organizations and enterprises | Implementation time, years: Up to 3 up to 5 up to 10 over 10 | 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 | ||
| Completeness of the obtained results | 0,2 | Completion is high | Methodology instruction, guidance materials, classifier, standards | 1,0 |
| Completion average | Terms of reference for applied R&D or R&D | 0,8 | ||
| Completeness is sufficient | Recommendations, detailed analysis, suggestions | 0,6 | ||
| Completeness is not enough | Review, information collection | 0,4 |
In the case of assessing the effectiveness of R&D of an applied nature, if there is a basis for comparison, the calculation is based on a comparison of the achieved technical parameters with the base ones.
The coefficient of scientific and technical effectiveness is determined in this case by the formula:
Kntr \u003d ∑ Kvli * Kppi (3.3)
where n is the number of parameters used for evaluation;
Kvli - the coefficient of influence of the i-th parameter on scientific and technical performance;
Kppi - relative coefficient of increase of the i-th parameter.
The relative parameter increase factor is determined by the formula:
Кпi = Wдi / Wбi (3.4)
where Wdi is the value of the achieved parameter;
Wbi is the value of the basic parameter.
The coefficients are determined by an expert, the assessment is carried out in Table. 3.3.
Table 3.3 - Characteristics of the factors and signs of the scientific and technical effectiveness of R&D
Along with the assessment of scientific and technical performance, for applied R&D, economic efficiency calculations are carried out, taking into account the features of R&D, primarily that R&D is the initial stage in the creation of new technology, therefore, calculations of the expected economic efficiency are of a probabilistic, predictive nature. In essence, this is the economic potential that can be realized in the future as the commercial results of innovations are obtained.
The assessment of the social effect of R&D is also predictive, social results may include: increasing the level of safety measures, eliminating heavy physical labor, improving working conditions, eliminating industrial injuries and occupational diseases, reducing air pollution in industrial premises, reducing harmful emissions into the environment, noise level etc. .
R&D planning
Approximate stages of research work and their relationship to each other in terms of volume and execution time are given in Table. 4.1.
Table 4.1 - Approximate stages of the research plan
| Stages | Oud. weight of each stage in the total amount of work, % | Content of works |
| 1. Preparatory stage | Selection and study of scientific and technical literature and other materials, generalization of experience, analysis of the state of the issue, compilation, coordination and approval of T3 and the calendar plan for carrying out work on the topic. | |
| 2. Theoretical development of the topic | Development of schemes and theoretical justifications, drawing up calculations and projects, finding new materials and production methods, systematizing theoretical developments. | |
| 3. Design and manufacture of mock-ups and test tools | Development and manufacture of models, stands, installations, equipment and other test tools, their installation and debugging | |
| 4. Experimental work and tests | Conducting experimental work, laboratory tests on theoretical developments. | |
| 5. Refinement and adjustment of the theoretical development of the topic based on the test results | Making corrections to the developed schemes, calculations and projects based on the results of the tests. | |
| 6. Generalizations, conclusions and suggestions on the topic, technical report, final stage. | Summarizing the results of the work and determining the expediency of further continuation of work in the main direction of the topic. Preparation of a technical report with the definition of economic efficiency. Registration and approval of research results. |
Conducting research usually includes a large number of works on the specified stages, which must be linked to each other in a certain sequence in terms of time, resources and information flows. In order to achieve such coordination of the entire range of research work, it is recommended to use network planning and management methods.
The first step in developing a network model is to determine the types of work and the time spent on carrying out these works, as well as determining the number of participants in the work and their qualifications.
The methodology for developing a network model and examples of the application of network planning models for R&D are given in the Appendix.
The probabilistic nature of R&D results complicates the assessment of economic efficiency and leads to their step-by-step determination with an increasing degree of accuracy. At the early stages of design work, calculations are predictive in nature and include:
Feasibility study of expected results; - selection of a base for comparison and reduction of options to a comparable form; - calculation of pre-production and capital costs in the field of production and operation; - calculation and analysis of indicators of economic efficiency.
Annual economic effect and economic efficiency in the operation of new products.
Methods for calculating the annual economic effect depend on whether the annual productivity of products differs in the compared options. If their annual productivity is equal (Q H = Q A), the calculation of the annual economic effect is based on the absolute values of capital investments K and operating costs (expenses) AND:
If, in the new version, the annual productivity of the product is higher than in the analogue , then the annual economic effect Eg is calculated on the basis of specific cost values k, u:
where K is the absolute value of capital investments; And - the absolute value of operating costs; k - specific capital investments; u - specific operating costs; E n - rate of return.
During the economic evaluation of a new product, the payback period for additional investments and the return on investment (in our case, capital investments) are also calculated (see Section 4.8 of Topic 4).
Investments (capital investments) are made in order to bring a profit greater than the cost of acquiring capital by an entrepreneur or when investing capital by an investor in another business or placing capital in a bank at interest. Therefore, to analyze new projects associated with the need to make a profit, often use the rate of return corresponding to different types of capital investments. The use in the calculations of one or another value of the rate of return depends entirely on the entrepreneur and investor, the goals of the company and the specific market situation. However, it is possible to recommend approximate values of E n, depending on the types of capital investments mentioned above (Table 6.5).
Table 6.5
Rates of return depending on the types of investments
|
Type of investment |
Purpose of investment |
Rate of return (%) |
|
Maintaining market positions | ||
|
Improving product quality, updating fixed assets | ||
|
Introduction of new technologies | ||
|
Increase in profits, accumulation of financial reserves for innovative projects | ||
|
Risky innovation projects, the outcome of which is unclear |
Estimated profitability(accounting rate of return) of capital investments are estimated by the ratio
Payback period calculated as the reciprocal of the estimated profitability (accounting rate of return):
The value of the rate of return E n can also be taken equal to the actual return on investment of the best projects in a similar direction, the real interest rate on the capital market or bank interest. The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate expressed in current prices but adjusted for inflation.
The developed product in operation is cost-effective if the inequality is observed.
Within the limits of compliance with this inequality, it is possible to change the price level of a new product depending on the goals pursued by entrepreneurs (developer and manufacturer).
If the strategy of capital owners is the strategy of "skimming the cream", that is, extracting the maximum profit during the billing period, then the most likely decision will be to set the maximum price for a new product that the market can only withstand (products will remain competitive and will be successfully sold during the billing period). ).
With a strategy of "deep market penetration" (gaining market share), prices can be reduced to the minimum level at which inequality is observed among the producer.
If during the operation of a new development (new product) there is an increase in profits and a decrease in the cost of manufactured products or work (in an organization using a new development), the annual economic effect can be calculated by the formula
where P a is the annual profit from the operation of an analogue product available at the enterprise (machine, device, etc.); Q is the volume of production (works); Q n - during the operation of a new product development; Q a - during the operation of the product development available at the enterprise); Z n, Z a - the cost of manufactured products, respectively, during the operation of a new product and an analogue product; K - additional investment in new product development; E n - rate of return.
When determining the annual economic effect, it is necessary to ensure the comparability of the compared options for a new product and an analogue product in terms of such indicators as:
The volume of products (work) produced with the help of a new product; - quality parameters; - time factor; - social factors of production and use of products.
Comparability in terms of the volume of products produced with the help of a new product and an analogue product was considered earlier.
It should also be taken into account that the transition from single to serial and mass production significantly reduces the cost of a unit of production by reducing the share of semi-fixed costs and increasing the level of mechanization of processes.
An analogue product and a newly developed product must be qualitatively comparable. Depending on the purpose and conditions of its operation, qualitative indicators of comparability can be, for example, reliability, durability, maintainability, power consumption, weight, dimensions, accuracy, speed, degree of automation, etc.
If an analogue product does not provide the performance of any function that is available in a new product, then additional funds should be provided for it, necessary to bring this indicator to the level of a new product.
In the designed products, there may be several indicators that must be taken into account when determining the overall quality indicator. Usually, the specific weight of the importance of each indicator in the general characteristics of the new development is determined. Then they are evaluated on a point system (for example, ten points). The scoring is made by an expert (Table 6.6).
The integral indicator (coefficient) of quality (K and) of a new product is determined by the formula
where n is the number of product parameters; a i - weight coefficient of importance of the i-th parameter; b in, b ia are the values of this parameter, respectively, of a new product and an analogue product, evaluated by experts in points.
Calculation of the annual economic effect in the production of new products
Annual economic effect in the production (development) of new products E g
where P h - profit from the sale of new products after paying taxes and interest on loans; K - capital investments.
In the case when a new product is mastered instead of an analogue product,
where - respectively, the economic effect in the production of a new product and an analogue product.
If capital investments are associated with the commissioning of fixed assets, depreciation deductions (A d) can be taken into account when calculating the annual economic effect, then
In this case, the annual profitability of capital investments for the development of new products is estimated by the ratio
The criterion for making a decision on the development of new products in the production is
where and - respectively, the payback period of investments: calculated and normative.
The indicator of the economic effect from the production of new products should be a positive value, which means the excess of the return on investment (capital investment) over the standard E n.
When calculating when bringing income and costs to one point in time (t 0), you need to solve the following problem. Find the value at which the integral economic effect for the calculation period (term of the economic life of investments) Ei would be equal to zero:
where - profit from the sale of new products of the t-th year; - capital investments of the t-th year; T is the number of years of the investment life cycle; J q - discount factor.
This method of calculation is discussed in detail in the course "Analysis of economic activity".
Taking into account the time factor in assessing the economic efficiency of research and development
When performing economic calculations at the stages of research and development, it must be taken into account that capital investments, as a rule, are made in the years preceding the start of production of new products at the manufacturer and prior to the start of operation of these systems. Therefore, all indicators of income and costs are considered reduced to one point in time - the first year of the billing period (the beginning of the manufacture or operation of new products). If necessary, such a reduction is done by dividing the indicators of a given year by the discount factor Jq:
where t is the number of years between year t, to which this indicator refers, and year "0" - the first year of the calculation period.
In the economic calculations of indicators after the settlement year, they are brought to the settlement "0" year by multiplying by the discount factor.
Determination of production costs of products at the stages of research and development
At the stages of research and development, there is still no data on the technology of manufacturing a new product, its labor intensity and material consumption, therefore, determining production costs at these stages presents certain difficulties. At the same time, a comprehensive economic analysis in both production and operation is necessary to make decisions about the feasibility of new developments.
Approximate cost calculations, in these cases, are carried out by establishing analogies between the created product and the previously created product based on the analysis of its parameters, elements and functions. Most often, the cost price is calculated using one of the following methods:
According to specific indicators; - by specific weight costs; - scoring; - correlation; - normative calculation.
Method of specific indicators
When calculating according to this method, it is assumed that the costs change in proportion to the change in the defining parameter of the product (for example, power consumption, performance, speed, etc.).
Typically, indicators such as the cost per unit of weight, the cost per unit of power, speed, the cost of one function, etc. are used.
The specific cost of the selected parameter is determined on the basis of the statistical data of the analogue product.
The cost of a new product Z n is determined as the product of the specific cost Z ud by the value of the main parameter of the new product X n:
Calculations of this type can be refined with the help of differentiated specific indicators, such as the cost of materials Z m.ud and labor intensity t ud per unit of the main parameter. Then
where C t is the hourly rate of a piece worker (or the hourly rate of a time worker); - coefficients taking into account, respectively, shop, factory and non-production costs.
Weighted cost method
This method is based on calculating one of the costing items of a new product in a direct way, for example, the cost of basic materials and components, and determining the cost of a new product, based on the assumption that the share of this article in the cost structure of a new product will be equal to the share of this article in the cost structure of an analogue product:
Point method
The scoring method is based on conditional scoring of the main technical and operational characteristics of products, for example, on a ten-point system.
The scoring procedure is performed using line graphs (Figure 6.8) or tables (Table 6.6).
Rice. 6.8 Graph of the scoring of parameters A and B for two types of materials M c and M d (n - new product; a - analogue product)
Table 6.6
Table of scoring parameters X i of a new product (H) and an analogue product (a)
|
Parameters X i |
Weight coefficient importance a i |
New item (N) |
Analogue product(s) |
|||||
|
Numeric value |
Number of points b in |
Significance |
Numeric value |
Number of points |
Significance |
|||
|
Parameter X 1 | ||||||||
|
Parameter X 2 | ||||||||
|
Parameter Xn | ||||||||
The scores established for each parameter by an expert are summed up for a new product and an analogue product separately.
The calculation of the cost of a new product Z n is carried out according to the formula
where is the value multiplier obtained by dividing the actual cost of the analogue product Za by the sum of points corresponding to its technical characteristics:
where a i is the weighting coefficient of importance of the i-th product parameter.
The method of points is applicable in the early stages of design for rough cost calculations only if the principle of proportional dependence of costs on parameters is preserved.
Correlation method
The method is based on the correlation dependence of the cost on any parameters of the product.
This dependence can be expressed either as a linear equation
or in the form of a power dependence (with a curvilinear form of the correlation field)
For i=1, ..., n,
where Z n - cost; x i - considered parameter; - constants characterizing the degree of influence of the parameter taken into account on the cost.
On the basis of statistical data for 3-5 years on the production of analogous products, it is possible to determine the trends in the cost of change and, if the results of research and development do not radically change the structure and value of the cost, determine the coefficients of the equation (using the least squares method).
So, for example, the equation for the relationship between the cost of Z n (for a group of semiconductor devices) and the labor intensity of manufacturing tpcs, the yield factor of suitable K v.g, the production volume Q and the year of manufacture T has the following form:
The process of establishing correlation dependencies is very time-consuming, it requires the selection of a large statistical material on analogous products, but the accuracy of determining the cost of costs in the early stages of design increases.
Standard costing method
The standard costing method (see topic 4, section 4.3) is the most accurate method for determining the cost of products, but the lack of reliable standard data on actual production costs makes it impossible in the early stages of design.
Method of average cost of functional elements
The method is based on the limited set of functional elements in the manufacture of the product and is mainly used in instrumentation. The average cost of some classes of functional elements differs slightly. The average cost of phase detectors, modulators, UPT triggers and other elements is almost the same for all radio equipment. This allows you to determine the cost of a product (device) by summing up the costs of functional elements, taking into account their class:
where n is the number of different classes in a given device; N i - number of elements of one class; S i - average cost of a functional element; W sb - the cost of the overall layout and adjustment.
The values of n and N i are most often known or can be determined at the stage of preliminary design. The average cost of a functional element is determined by dividing the cost of a block of the same i-th class of an analogue device by the number of functional elements in the device. The costs associated with the overall layout, setup and adjustment of the instrument are determined by any known methods of determining the cost. The total error of the deviation of the actual cost from the calculated one is no more than 10%, which is quite acceptable for economic calculations at the early stages of design.
Accounting for price changes when determining the cost (cost indexation)
To determine the overall level of cost increases, it is necessary to determine private indices of price changes for individual components and take into account the share of these costs in total costs. The summary index of change in the cost price I can be determined by the formula
where n is the number of individual components; - the share of material, labor costs and (or) expenses for the sale of products and other costs; - the index of changes in prices for materials, consumer prices, average wages, product sales prices, etc.
When determining the change in cost, it is advisable to take into account only the main cost items, that is, those costs that are directly related to ensuring the release of products.
Calculation and comparison of capital investments for new products of compared options
The calculation of capital investments of the consumer is given earlier (section 4.5 of topic 4).
Calculation and comparison of specific capital investments
In cases where the annual productivity of new products (for example, devices) in the compared options is not the same, it is necessary to compare not absolute, but specific values of capital investments:
where k - specific capital investments in the new (k n) and the old (k a) version; K - the absolute value of capital investments in the new (K n) and former (K a) options; Q - annual productivity of the product (Q n - new; Q a - analogue).
The effectiveness of scientific research is established taking into account the various types of manifestation of the beneficial effect that can be obtained when using the results of research. These types of effects can be: a) social effect - is manifested in increasing safety for human life and health, labor safety, in improving working conditions, reducing the likelihood of occupational diseases, increasing environmental safety and in obtaining other socially significant results b) defensive effect - characterizes the significance of the research results for ensuring the country's defense capability. Performance indicators in this case can be: the probability of completing a combat mission, the degree of protection of objects from enemy damage, the level of preservation of state, industrial, military secrets, etc. d.; in) economical effect - characterizes the valuation of the effectiveness of scientific research, manifested in a decrease in the cost of products, works, services, profit growth; G) scientific and technological effect - characterized as the accumulation of new knowledge in the field of properties and phenomena of the material world, manifested in the form of scientific publications, reports, discoveries, defended dissertations, inventions.
Quantification usually lends itself to the economic impact expected from applied research and development. The basis of such an assessment is a comparison of costs (estimated cost of the topic) and results (expected reduction in the cost of production). When calculating other types of effect, the peer review method is often used. For example, when assessing the scientific and technical effect, it may be recommended to use the scientific and technical effect coefficient Ht:
where m is the number of signs of scientific and technical effect;
ri - scoring of the i-th attribute of the scientific and technical effect;
bi is the level of significance of the i-th feature of the scientific and technical effect. Tables 1 and 2 show typical signs of scientific and technical effect and approximate values of ri, bi.
Table 1 - Point values of the signs of the scientific and technical effect
|
Signs of scientific and technological effect |
Point values ri |
|
|
1. Expected level of novelty of R&D results |
a) fundamentally new | |
|
b) relatively new | ||
|
c) not new | ||
|
2. Theoretical level |
a) establishment of a new law, theory | |
|
b) deep study of the problem | ||
|
c) development of a method, method, program | ||
|
3. Possibility of practical use of the results |
a) within 1 - 2 years | |
|
b) within 3 - 5 years | ||
|
c) for 5 years or more | ||
|
d) indefinite | ||
Table 2 - Significance of signs of scientific and technical effect
Science is the most efficient area for investment. In world practice, it is generally accepted that the profit from investments in science is 100-200%, which is much higher than the profit in any industry. In our country, the efficiency of science is also quite high.
Science is getting more and more expensive every year. In this regard, a second problem arises in the economy - a decrease in the direct costs of research with an increasing effect from their implementation. Therefore, the effectiveness of scientific research is also understood as the most economical research possible. Increasing the efficiency of scientific research in a team can be achieved in various ways: by improving the planning and organization of research; more efficient use of equipment; rational use of appropriations; material stimulation of scientific work; application of the scientific organization of labor; improvement of the psychological climate in the scientific team, etc.
Various criteria are used to evaluate the effectiveness of studies. Basic research gives effect only after a significant period after the start of research. The results of fundamental R&D can only be assessed using qualitative criteria:
– the possibility of applying the results in various industries;
– the novelty of phenomena, which gives impetus to current research;
- contribution to the country's defense capability;
- the priority of domestic science;
– international recognition of works;
– fundamental monographs;
– citation of works, etc.
Applied research is easier to evaluate, in this case, various quantitative criteria are used. In a market economy, the effectiveness of applied scientific and technical developments is evaluated by determining the scientific, technical, economic and social effects.
For technological developments, the scientific and technical effect is expressed in raising the scientific and technical level and in improving the parameters of equipment and technology, which follows from the established new patterns, as well as from the developed new technological methods of production.
The scientific and technical efficiency of the results of applied research is established in conjunction with the assessment of their economic and social effectiveness using indicators of the scientific and technical level (Table 7.1), which is determined by comparable features.
Table 7.1 - Indicative scoring scale for comparing the scientific and technical level of R&D and R&D and normative values of weight coefficients
| Indicators of scientific and technical level | Signs of indicators | Number of points | Index Importance Ratio |
| Scientific and technical level | Exceeds the best world analogues | 0,3-0,35 | |
| Corresponds to the world level | 7-9 | ||
| Below the best world analogues | 5-6 | ||
| Exceeds the best domestic analogues | 3-4 | ||
| Corresponds to the domestic level | 1-2 | ||
| Below domestic level | |||
| Promising | The most important | 0,35-0,4 | |
| Important | 5-7 | ||
| Useful | 1-3 | ||
| Potential scale of practical use | World market | 0,2 | |
| Sectors of the national economy | 7-8 | ||
| Industry (region) | 3-5 | ||
| Separate enterprise (association) | 1,2 | ||
| The degree of probability of obtaining positive results | Big (significant) | 0,1 | |
| Moderate (medium) | 5-6 | ||
| Small (weak) | 1-3 |
To assess the scientific and technical level of the results of research and development work, several of the most significant technical parameters are selected, in which, first of all, future consumers of technology, products, services, and methods of performing work are interested. In particular, it can be productivity, operational reliability, energy and material consumption, and environmental performance. Other parameters (especially technical ones) should be within the generally accepted level.
The assessment includes several stages:
- determination of the set of necessary regulatory documents that reflect the requirements for new products, especially in the field of ecology, safety, imposed in countries of possible sale by competing firms;
- determination of the list of technical and technical and economic indicators necessary for assessing the scientific and technical level;
– formation of a group of analogues in the world and domestic markets and the establishment of the values of their technical and economic indicators;
- for comparison, it is necessary to take (if we are talking about new models of equipment) such analogues, the production of which has just begun, or (if we are talking about technologies and materials) that have been used in the last 2-3 years;
- for each analogue it is necessary to determine the values of the same estimated indicators;
- comparison of the values of the parameters of new products, which will be obtained as a result of the implementation of research and development work, with the requirements of regulatory documents and the parameters of analogues.
The economic effect consists in obtaining economic results from scientific and technical developments both for the country's economy as a whole and for individual regions, industries, organizations and enterprises that take part in the implementation of technological innovations.
When calculating economic efficiency, various cases are possible depending on the purpose of the calculation, the type of implementation object and the base of comparison. In each case, it is necessary to be guided by regulatory materials.
The relationship between economic indicators and technical parameters of development is established in each specific case when performing research and development, and in the practice of integrated calculations of the costs of new equipment, the method of regression analysis has found wide popularity. In general, the regression dependence can be written as
where at- dependent variable (one or another economic indicator);
– vector of independent variables (technical parameters);
are the coefficients of the model.
To establish the relationship with indicators of economic efficiency, normative methods can also be used, with the help of which the impact of changes in technical parameters on the flow costs of production, for example, on wages, electricity costs, material components of costs, etc., can be used.
From the point of view of the developer's organization, the main criterion for economic efficiency is the ratio:
To e = E/Z, (7.2)
where E- the economic effect of the introduction of the topic;
Z– costs for the implementation and implementation of the topic.
The effectiveness of the work of a team of scientists is assessed by:
- the criterion of labor productivity - To n = FROM 0 / P, where FROM 0 - estimated cost of research and development; R- the average number of employees of the unit;
– the number of implemented topics for a certain period;
– economic effect from the introduction of R&D;
– number of received patents;
– the number of sold licenses or foreign exchange earnings.
The effectiveness of a particular researcher is evaluated by the number of publications and citation of his works. The economic evaluation of the work of an individual employee is rarely used.
From the point of view of the consumer of scientific products, the main indicator of the effectiveness of research and development work is the economic effect E from the implementation of the development, so let's dwell in detail on the method of its calculation.
The calculation of the economic effect from the use of the results of research and development work has its own characteristics. Since the scientific process can be conditionally divided into three stages (selection of a topic, implementation of research and development work and implementation in production), then the calculation of economic efficiency is carried out in stages. In accordance with the three stages of research, there are three types of efficiency: preliminary, expected, actual.
Preliminary economic efficiency is established during the preparation of the feasibility study and the inclusion of the research topic in the plan. It is calculated according to benchmarks.
The expected economic efficiency is calculated in the process of performing research and is attributed to a certain period (year) of introducing products into production. This is a more precise criterion, although the scope of implementation can only be determined approximately.
The actual economic efficiency is determined after the introduction of scientific developments into production. It is usually calculated based on actual costs and taking into account specific cost indicators. It is usually somewhat lower than expected and is determined by the enterprise where the implementation is carried out.
At the level of enterprises using scientific and technical developments, economic results are determined in the form of proceeds from the sale of manufactured new products, or products manufactured using new technology, minus funds spent on their own needs. The composition of costs in the process of determining the effectiveness includes all the one-time capital and flow costs of all project participants necessary for implementation. In this case, the calculation of the economic effect is based on the reduced costs:
W pr= FROM+ E n · To, (7.3)
where FROM- cost;
TO - capital investments;
E n is the standard payback ratio of capital expenditures.
Expected or actual economic efficiency E calculated by the difference between the reduced costs of the base (old) and new product options:
E = 3 ave. 1 – 3 ave. 2 . (7.4)
With known probabilities of various conditions for the implementation of the project, the mathematical expression for determining the expected economic effect is written as follows:
where E i- effect at і -m implementation condition;
P i is the probability of these conditions being realized.
If additional investments are required in the process of introducing R&D and R&D, then, in addition, the actual payback period is calculated:
T f . = , (7.6)
where To 1 and To 2 - specific capital investments according to the new and old options;
FROM 1 and FROM 2 - the cost of a unit of production for the new and old options.
To evaluate cost effectiveness, the indicator T f compared with the normative indicator for this industry:
T n = T f. (7.7)
If inequality is observed, then investment is efficient. To take into account the time factor, if in the process of implementation and implementation of R&D there is a need for capital expenditures in different periods, it is necessary to bring these costs to a comparable form. To do this, use the cast dependencies to:
- future period - K b = K t (1 + E n)T; (7.8)
- present period - K t = , (7.9)
where T- duration of the period;
K b- equivalent costs through T years;
K t- current expenses.
In a market economy, especially in the period of its formation, investing in science is associated with the risk of not obtaining the expected results in the desired time frame. In this regard, in addition to determining economic efficiency, there is a need for a quantitative assessment of the risk of funds invested in scientific development. This is done so that in advance, even before the implementation of capital investments, investors, including the enterprise planning the construction itself, could have a clear picture of the real prospects for making a profit and returning the invested funds.
Methodological approaches to assessing the economic efficiency of investment projects should provide for a minimum guaranteed level of profitability of the project, subject to compensation for inflationary changes in the purchasing power of money during the period under consideration and to cover the risk of the investor associated with the implementation of the project. This is achieved by using discounting methods.
The process of discounting the cost of the project consists in bringing to the point in time chosen as the base (current or specially stipulated) the valuation of future values of both the investments themselves, distributed over time, and the proceeds (cash flow) from investments from use.
The relationship between the current and future value of an investment project is as follows:
where SS– present value;
BS- future value;
k d– reduction (discounting) coefficient;
t– time gap between the current moment and the base year of the investment project.
Taking into account the discounting, the amount of accumulated net proceeds from the implementation of the project is determined by the expression:
, (7.11)
where PE d- net proceeds from the implementation of the project, distributed over time.
Net proceeds from the project implementation are calculated as the sum of net profit and accrued depreciation:
where P H- the value of the net profit of the project;
BUT- depreciation deductions.
This indicator makes it possible to calculate the accumulated current profitability of future income, the volume of which depends in part on the loan interest and inflation rates.
Similarly, the present future cost of the project can be calculated, where the numerator of the formula represents the capital investments distributed over the years of the future period, intended to finance the implementation of the development.
In international practice, the recognized indicators characterizing the benefits from the introduction of scientific and technical developments, and which are used to assess the economic efficiency of investment projects, are criteria based on the time value of money:
NPV (Net Present Value) - net (discounted) income (profit);
PI (Profitability Index) - index of profitability (profitability);
PBP (Payback Period) – payback period (term) of investments in project implementation;
IRR (Internal Rate of Return) - internal rate of return (profitability).
So, for example, the difference between the discounted net income from the implementation of the project and the initial income determines the amount of net present income:
(7.13)
where NPV- net present income;
FROM- investment costs, including research costs, working capital and production costs (when determining the real efficiency of the project).
Net present income allows you to compare the investment that needs to be made with the additional profit that they will provide in the future. If the discounted amount of expected future investment returns is greater than the investment costs, then the project can be considered effective, i.e. only those projects that have a positive value should be invested NPV. This indicator is most rationally used to rank innovative proposals and select priority projects in terms of their effectiveness.
The net present value ratio (yield index) is defined as the ratio NPV and the required present value of the investment. This ratio allows you to get the discounted rate of return (efficiency ratio), calculated by the formula:
ID = NPV / DSI, (7.14)
where ID- profitability index or, in other words, efficiency ratio k e;
DSI– discounted (present) value of investments in innovations.
The internal rate of return (IRR) is defined as the estimated discount rate at which the total net present value equals the present (discounted) cost of the project's costs. The GNI indicator is calculated by the formula:
where P t - net cash flow for the period t, calculated by solving (7.15) with respect to k d to determine the minimum allowable efficiency rate at which NPV equals 0, or discounted returns equal to investment. This indicator sets the break-even limit of the investment project.
The payback period is defined as the period to recover the initial investment in the development of funds based on the accumulated net real cash flows due to the implementation of an innovative project, i.e. the ratio of investment to discounted returns. The indicator of the payback period of funds invested in innovation provides information about the level of riskiness of the project in connection with changes in the relative liquidity of investments.
Indicators of economic efficiency (7.13-7.15) of innovative projects take into account the costs and results associated with their implementation, both of a commercial nature and those that go beyond the direct financial interests of the project participants, including the effect of sectors of the national economy, social effect and others components of efficiency, due to non-market activities of the subjects of implementation of scientific and technical developments.
To meet the commercial interests of each of the project participants, it is important to evaluate the financial results of its implementation or commercial efficiency, which is a component of the integral efficiency of the sectors of the national economy. The commercial efficiency of scientific and technical development projects and their use is defined as the ratio of financial costs and the results of scientific and technical developments that provide the required rate of return.
Social, environmental and other results that cannot be assessed in monetary terms are taken into account as additional indicators of the efficiency of sectors of the national economy and are taken into account when making decisions on the priority of the project and its state support. However, in most cases, the social consequences of scientific and technological developments can be valued and are included in the overall results of the project within the limits of its established effectiveness.
The main types of social outcomes are:
- changes in the structure of production personnel and their qualifications, including changes in the number of employees (primarily women) engaged in hazardous types of work, as well as requiring advanced training;
– improvement in the health of workers, measured by the level of averted losses associated with payments from the social insurance fund or health care costs.
– environmental changes.
The impact of innovation on changes in the working conditions of workers and the environment is evaluated in points corresponding to sanitary and hygienic standards or psychological working conditions, as well as standards for the level of environmental pollution. For this purpose, data from sociological surveys, as well as special measurements at the workplace, can be used.
