The age-old history of Egyptian sole rule on the Nile is coming to an end. The dam of Ethiopia's great renaissance: why Egypt and Sudan await it with horror

It would seem that it is worth rejoicing for Ethiopia, which is building a huge dam on the Nile. Ethiopian peasants are really happy, but thunder and lightning are thundering in Cairo. In Egypt, they fear that because of the new dam, and especially as a result of filling the reservoir, less water will come to them. While both countries could benefit from the Great Renaissance Dam if they so desire, both Cairo and Addis Ababa are determined.

Blood in exchange for Nile

A proposal to bomb the Renaissance dam is being discussed at the highest level in Egypt. After the government meeting at which this issue was discussed, the President Mohammed Morsi promised to the whole country "to protect every drop of the Nile with our blood." Egypt, he said, does not want war, but is ready for it.

In Ethiopia, on whose territory the main sources of the great river are located, they are also in a militant mood. In response to Cairo's threats, its parliament ratified a new treaty regulating relations between the countries through which the Nile flows, replacing the old one, concluded back in 1929 with the active mediation of Great Britain, the dominant power in eastern Africa at that time. That treaty made Egypt almost the sovereign master of the great river. The document ordered the remaining 9 Nile countries not to take any action that could reduce the flow of water in the Nile. Of the estimated 84 billion cubic meters of water flowing along the Nile in a year, the old agreement guarantees Egypt 55.5 billion.

For seven decades, the Nile countries endured the dictatorship of Egypt and Sudan, which joined it. In 1959, Cairo and Khartoum signed an agreement that diverted 18.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water to Sudan. By the way, this time Khartoum almost for the first time in half a century did not support Cairo in the dispute over the Nile. A week and a half ago, Ethiopia joined five other countries located on the banks of the Nile: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, which also ratified a new agreement that cancels the old one.

In Addis Ababa, they say they delayed ratification out of respect for the Egyptian people. Ethiopia was waiting for the government to appear in Egypt.

The construction of the Renaissance Dam is not a surprise for Cairo. This dam in northwestern Ethiopia, near the border with Sudan, has been planned since the 1960s. However, Addis Ababa officially announced the final decision to build it only in March 2011. The project's capacity is estimated at 5250 MW. It should double Ethiopia's electricity generation. The dam is now 20% complete.

Useful conflict

Despite the fact that the Nile flows through 10 countries, the construction of the dam will affect only three of them: Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. The Nile provides Egypt with 95% water. Unsurprisingly, when the Ethiopians began building the dam two years ago, without first consulting Cairo, which they were obliged to do under the 1929 treaty, the Egyptians became alarmed.

It so happened that not a single country is now ready for a serious conflict. The revolution gave Egypt a weak government. In the Land of the Pharaohs, there is a strong economic and political crisis.

Ethiopia hardly needs a conflict either, which, by the way, is already suffering for its initiative. The World Bank and other international lenders are extremely frowned upon by large water projects affecting several countries and not receiving their approval. As a result, Addis Ababa has to finance the project worth, according to various estimates, from 4.3 to 4.8 billion dollars, using its own resources. The government, naturally, siphons money out of the population, which is forced to buy bonds.

Another conflict over the Nile is surprising, because the dam can be useful to both countries. Ethiopia, with abundant rainfall and many high mountains, is an ideal location for hydropower development. However, 83% of the country's population lives without electricity. The revival will not only provide Ethiopia with electricity, but will also allow the surplus to be sold to neighbors, including Egypt. It should be borne in mind that the energy generated from water is much cheaper than that obtained by burning solid fuel. In Egypt, 90% of electricity is generated in this very expensive way.

Ethiopia is interested in allaying Egypt's fears about the runoff, because without financial assistance from Cairo, it will not be able to complete construction without completely paralyzing its economy. It is beneficial for Cairo to let Addis Ababa complete the dam, because it will not only provide it with cheap electricity, but also raise the standard of living in Ethiopia, thereby increasing the market for Egyptian goods and services.

It turns out that everything rests on the concern of the Egyptians for the stock. Ethiopians have tried to calm Cairo by providing a study by scientists who claim that the construction of the dam will not greatly affect the flow of water in the lower reaches. However, in Egypt, they believe that one study is not enough to judge the possible consequences of construction. There is the possibility of a compromise that could reduce the intensity of passions. Ethiopia plans to fill the reservoir with 74 billion cubic meters of water within 5-6 years. As a gesture of goodwill, she may fill it out more slowly and agree to do more research on the consequences that the dam would have.

Actually, my dad, from an early age, prepared me for a career as a representative of the small peoples of the North (see the picture above the text)
But here we will focus on the difficult problems of the large peoples of the South. No, I do not yet identify myself with the black population of the planet, but still:
With Syria, the issue was finally resolved to everyone's satisfaction, now it was Egypt's turn. The country is ancient, it has existed for thousands of years. The Jews, according to the Bible, left Egypt as early as the XIV century BC. Well, take it, as much as you can !? But first things first.
In the USSR at one time the song "If there were guys of the whole Earth" was very popular (words by E. Dolmatovsky, music by V. Solovyov-Sedoy). This song contains these words:

We are for peace, for friendship, for cute smiles,
For the cordiality of the meetings.

Mark Bernes put his heart and soul into the performance of this song, especially in the words "for the smiles of the darlings." How did he feel that he was a Jew after all! Because these are the words that can characterize the current relations between Israel and Ethiopia. Today these relations, without exaggeration, can be called “fraternal”. But, let's no longer demonstrate the rare cello and get down to business:
Ethiopia - this enchanting smell of dried badgers, the taste of fried bidai, boiled horse meat, salted yellow butter, cottage cheese with honey ... So, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry officially announced that the "Agreement on the Framework for Cooperation in the Nile Basin" was submitted to the country's parliament ... The treaty was signed back in 2011 by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, Congo, and South Sudan.
The treaty provides for the creation of the Nile River Basin Commission, which will revise the quotas for the Nile watershed. And finally, the process of ratification of this agreement has begun. All eight signatories agreed that this Treaty "became part of the domestic legislation of each of the signatory countries."
In connection with this event of truly world-historical significance, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin arrived in Ethiopia on an official visit on 01.05.2018 in order to outline prospects and set tasks. Addis Ababa greeted Rivlin with festive decorations ...
Actually, the Nile runoff has already been divided twice. In 1929 and 1959. In 1929, Egypt was given the right to veto "any projects in the upper Nile." The British Empire decided so. So where is that British Empire today? She is still capable of marrying her prince to a divorced girl rather coffee-colored (coffee and a little milk), but she can no longer afford the issues of the Nile runoff.
And in 1959, another dirty conspiracy took place between Egypt and Sudan, according to which these two states appropriated 90% of the Nile's flow (According to the agreement on water intake from the Nile from 1959, Egypt received 55.5 billion cubic meters, and Sudan - 18.5 billion).
The treaty was concluded without any participation of the states of the sources of the Nile, and this despite the fact that Ethiopia supplies 80% of the Nile's flow. The interests of the states lying in the upper reaches of the Nile were not taken into account then, because Negroes live in these countries, and therefore these countries are a trash can of history. As if there are no negroes living in Sudan, even if they speak Arabic! But nothing, now the hour of harsh retribution has come!
And today we already need obstetricians and pediatricians of the new, and not resuscitators of the past. Because now these negroes, who were previously neglected, have divided among themselves the ENTIRE flow of the Nile, coldly informing Egypt and Sudan that "You were not standing here." As the Ethiopian says folk wisdom: "O pimp, get out of our songs!"
That is, Ethiopia is building the Great Dam of Renaissance. 12 km south of the Ethiopian-South Sudanese border. It is on the construction of a giant hydroelectric power station with a capacity of 6 (six) thousand megawatts (currently Ethiopia produces 2 thousand megawatts).
The Ethiopian government has decided to split the project into two parts - a company that generates energy and a company that supplies it.
The distribution part of the project, you guessed it, will be carried out by the Israel Electric Corporation (Hevrat Hashmal). Hevrat Hashmal will be responsible for the construction, maintenance and operation of the Ethiopian electrical grid and electricity supply networks to the Horn of Africa.
The Ethiopian decision to ratify the treaty demonstrates that Africans believe the moment has come when they can simply ignore the interests of their once powerful Arab neighbors. Although before that, there were no joke conflicts around this project:
Arab countries encouraged the secession of the Muslim region from Ethiopia, resulting in the emergence of the state of Eritrea. In turn, Israel has offered its fraternal shoulder to the people of southern Sudan, whose population is not Muslim, and as a result, the state of South Sudan emerged.
And the Arabs are not in vain. And the point is not only that, as a result of the construction of this dam, Egypt will be left without water. Since due to the implementation of the Ethiopian project, the water deficit in Egypt will be 94 billion cubic meters per year. Egypt has already drastically cut rice production due to the construction of the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia and began to buy rice abroad. What to do - the Renaissance dam has already significantly reduced the volume of water in the Nile, ..
And this is before Israel helps brotherly Ethiopia with the irrigation of the Ethiopian deserts. And Israel will help.
But the immediate danger for Egypt in the Ethiopian Renaissance dam lies elsewhere. The Great Dam of the Renaissance has a flood runoff of 70 billion cubic meters - at an altitude of 700 meters. If it collapses, and if it is blown up, then it will surely collapse, then in this case Khartoum (the capital of sunny Sudan) will be completely flooded. Further, on the Aswan Dam, the waters will destroy the dam of the Aswan Dam itself.
The Aswan Dam was built in 1960 with the help of the USSR. Taking this opportunity, Nikita Sergeevich Khrushchev in 1964 even awarded Gamal Nasser with the Golden Star of the Hero Soviet Union(By the decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR dated May 13, 1964, he was awarded the title of Hero of the Soviet Union with the award of the Order of Lenin and the Gold Star medal). For what he awarded, I think, and Khrushchev himself did not know, but the Aswan Dam was built.
And now, as a result of a huge volume of water, rushing with a terrible force from behind the exploded Ethiopian Renaissance dam, the Aswan Dam will also be destroyed. In which, even if it is poor, the entire population of Egypt lives.
As a result of this cataclysm, at the moment the level of the Nile in its delta will rise to 5 (five) meters. This is quite enough for everything and everyone in the Nile Delta to surface, smeared in silt, somewhere between Cyprus and Israel in numerous, but small parts.
So, to date, the construction of the Renaissance dam itself has already been completed and, at the moment, 4 out of 16 turbines have been installed on the Renaissance Dam. At the same time, Ethiopia, with Israeli help, feeling strong enough, and therefore publicly warned Egypt about the possibility of a war with him for the waters of the Nile., If the Egyptian military bases are not withdrawn from the territory of Eritrea.
Arab peoples want to fight. Always, it's like a sexual instinct for them. But even here they thought about it ...

Among the political news that has been stirring Egypt over the past few weeks is the news that Ethiopia has begun work on re-channeling the Blue Nile four months ahead of schedule. Commenced work is underway in the framework of the project for the construction of the Great Ethiopian Rebirth Dam (VEPV). On Monday, Egyptian President M. Morsi said that the issue of water security is vital for the country; therefore he considers all means to solve the problem. The African Union called on the parties to come to the negotiating table immediately.

Construction of the dam just 40 km from the border with Sudan began in April 2011. The design work was carried out by the Italian company Salini Costruttori, which has already built two hydroelectric power plants in Ethiopia. She is also the main contractor for the construction of the dam. According to the project, the dam should be 1780 m long and 145 m high. A 1680 sq km water reservoir will be created in front of the dam, which will hold 74 billion cubic meters. m of water. The dam is expected to be fully operational in July 2017. The project cost is estimated at USD 4.8 billion. Of these, 1.8 billion were invested by Chinese banks and 3 billion are paid by Ethiopia.

In addition to the EPW, Ethiopia intends to build three more hydroelectric power plants within 25 years. Electricity is supposed to be sold to the countries of the Horn of Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, Egypt and Europe. True, this will require building a powerful infrastructure, which can take decades. However, Ethiopia has already signed 11 contracts for a total of $ 329 million for the construction of power lines, substations, consulting support, etc.

Projects for the construction of hydroelectric power plants in the countries located upstream of Egypt on the Nile have always caused an extremely negative reaction in the country. In particular, projects to block the Blue Nile, because 85 percent of the water that flows through northern Sudan and Egypt is the Blue Nile water.

From the point of view of international law, the situation with the construction of the EPW is more than ambiguous.

Until recently, the distribution of Nile water was regulated by a 1956 agreement between Egypt and Sudan, according to which the countries of the Nile basin, located above Egypt and Sudan, cannot implement water projects that threaten the provision of these two countries with water. The agreement provides Egypt with a quota of 55.5, and Sudan - 18.5 billion cubic meters. m of Nile water. Other countries in the Nile Basin were not included in the treaty on the grounds that they receive sufficient rainwater for agricultural purposes.

Egypt, in its negotiations with countries located upstream, requires the observance of two indispensable conditions. The first is a ban on the implementation of projects that threaten the country's water security, and the second is the adoption of decisions between the countries of the Nile basin only with unanimous approval, which essentially gives Egypt the right to veto any projects that run counter to its national interests. In turn, the rest of the "Nile" states insist on making a decision by a simple majority.

This changed in 2010, when in Entebbe, Uganda, an agreement was concluded between the countries participating in the so-called Nile Basin Initiative, which established a new simple majority decision-making process. The countries said they were no longer willing to put up with the situation in which Egypt obstructed any projects related to the Nile water in the countries located upstream of the Nile. The Entebbe Accords have not been signed by Egypt, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

As a result, there actually was a gap between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand and Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi on the other. South Sudan joined the agreements shortly after independence.

Ratification of the Entebba accords by the parliaments of the countries will mean the end of the 1956 treaty currently in force,

Egypt and Sudan said the Entebba accords were contrary to international law and called on donors for a dam under construction in Ethiopia to withdraw funding for the project. According to Hani Raslan, head of the Sudan and Nile Studies Program at the Al-Ahram Center for Policy and Strategic Studies, water distribution should be correlated with the country's population and agricultural land.

However, this argument is least applicable to Ethiopia, which currently has a population of about 94 million (versus 85 million Egyptians) and is growing faster than Egypt. In addition, currently in Ethiopia, no more than 20% of the population has access to the benefits of electricity.

In accordance with the Entebba Accords, Ethiopia has begun work on the Renaissance Dam, which directly threatens Egypt's water security.

The problem is aggravated by the fact that complete documentation related to the dam construction project remains inaccessible to Egypt and Sudan, which does not allow an objective assessment of the risks.

That is why the question of what consequences the construction of the dam will lead to for these countries remains unworked, which serves as a basis for apocalyptic pictures of drought and famine, or, on the contrary, floods that terrify the Egyptians by journalists and a number of experts.

The dam, which is scheduled for completion in 2017, is being built among basalt rocks stretching along the African Great Fault line, which, for obvious reasons, means high seismic activity in this zone. Meanwhile, Egypt still has not received the results of geological studies carried out before the start of the construction of the dam.

At the same time, Egyptian experts write that the safety margin of the dam under construction is extremely low.

According to experts, in the event of the destruction of the dam, most of Sudan will be flooded; Aswan hydroelectric power station could be seriously damaged.

Analysts also note that after the completion of the dam, Egypt will receive, on average, 30% less of its annual rate during the six years that are allotted to fill the water reservoir. After the construction of the VEPV - by 20%, and the electricity generation of the Aswan hydroelectric power station will decrease by all 40%.

Even if the Vozrozhdenie dam is used only for the production of electricity, Egypt will lose about 19 billion cubic meters annually. water, which will lead to desertification of a significant part of the fertile land. In the same case, if water is also used for agricultural projects, the devastating consequences for the Egyptian agricultural sector could be catastrophic.

Already at present, Egypt does not have enough of the water that is allocated to it according to the quota (55.5 billion cubic meters). The real need of the country is 75 billion cubic meters. Every year the country has to borrow water from Sudan. At present, this debt is about 300 billion cubic meters of water. By 2050, when the population of Egypt is projected at 150 million people, the country will need about 21 billion cubic meters of water in excess of the current quota.

According to Hani Raslan, the construction of the EPW is the cherished dream of the leadership of Ethiopia. The construction of the dam will allow it to export electricity to the countries of the Horn of Africa, which will certainly contribute to the growth of Ethiopia's political influence in these countries. In addition, the analyst believes that the construction of the dam is politically motivated and is aimed not only at providing the country with electricity, but also at creating effective tool political impact on Sudan and Egypt.

The beginning of work on the project served to increase the intensity of passions in relations between Ethiopia and Egypt, especially in the media. On both sides, journalists write seriously about the possibility of war between countries. The Egyptian press even recalled that former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat at one time threatened Ethiopia with bombing the dam under construction, if it thought to block the Blue Nile. In 2010, when the first news appeared that Ethiopia was going to block the Blue Nile, an agreement was concluded between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir that Egypt would build a military base and an airfield in Sudan. Then the possibility of destroying the dam under construction in the course of an air raid or special operation was seriously discussed. There has already been a precedent for that. According to al-Ahram newspaper, in the mid-1970s, under President Sadat, the Egyptian Air Force bombed a ship carrying equipment for a dam that was being built on the Blue Nile.

Last week, representatives of various political parties and movements, at a meeting with President M. Morsi, proposed to use rebel groups operating in Ethiopia to organize attacks on the dam under construction. Since the meeting was broadcast on central television, the next day the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry demanded an explanation from the Egyptian Ambassador to Addis Ababa.

In this situation, Egypt and Sudan are in the minority. And, admittedly, their opinions and interests are little taken into account, which is largely due to their current economic and image weakness. Countries located upstream of them on the Nile accuse Cairo and Khartoum of colonialism and ignoring the interests of other countries. Much in the current policy of the Nile Basin countries towards Egypt and Sudan is determined not only by the needs of the economy for electricity, but also by the desire to hurt pride former leaders Middle East region. So, South Sudan, almost immediately after gaining independence, joined the Entebba agreements and suspended work on the Jonglei Canal project, which was completed by three quarters. The latter, we recall, was aimed at draining the Sudda or Bahr al-Jebel - a huge swampy area, where about 9 billion cubic meters evaporate annually. meters of water (5-7% of the current volume of water consumed by Egypt), which, after the completion of the work, was supposed to increase the water resources of Egypt and Sudan.

Currently, Egypt is going to involve the Arab League, the African Union and the UN Security Council in solving the growing problem. ...

16.01.2014 16:01

In 2011, as soon as the revolution took place in Egypt and Mubarak was imprisoned, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania initiated the redistribution of the Nile water intake. Egypt and Sudan refuse to sign a new agreement that actually threatens their existence, citing international agreements signed earlier.

The Egyptian leadership hopes that it will be possible to preserve "historical rights", which are confirmed by the 1929 treaty between Egypt and the British Empire. The treaty gives the country the right to veto any projects in the upper Nile. According to an agreement signed in 1959 between Egypt and Sudan, these two states take 90% of the Nile's water intake. It is precisely at the destruction of the Arab monopoly on the Nile that the actions of African states are directed, and, first of all, Ethiopia. Ethiopia does not face the problem of water shortages - the dam should provide the country with electricity.

Every year, on January 9, Egyptians celebrate the construction date of the Aswan Dam, erected during the reign of President Gamal Abdel Nasser. The construction of the dam began in 1960 and was commissioned in 1971. The total cost of construction was more than $ 1 billion, most of which was financed by the USSR. The dam has a capacity of 160 billion cubic meters of water.

The reservoir formed by the dam was named "Lake Nasser".

However, the 54th celebration of the nationwide event was clouded by fear and apprehension about what awaits the country in connection with the implementation of a large-scale project in the south, in neighboring Ethiopia. The "Great Ethiopian Rebirth Dam" is under construction on the Blue Nile River (the most powerful right tributary of the Nile) and there is no doubt that it will have a direct and extremely detrimental effect on the water supply of Egypt. In this case, the Aswan Dam could be put out of action for at least two years. The launch of the Ethiopian dam is scheduled for 2017. With a capacity of 6,000 MW, it will become the most productive hydroelectric power plant in Africa.

The experts' warnings about the harm caused by the new Ethiopian dam are causing panic among Egyptians. The situation has escalated to the point that many now believe that the Aswan Dam will surely collapse as soon as construction is completed in Ethiopia.

But even without the panic that the Egyptian media is sowing among citizens, the country's transitional government itself is extremely concerned about the inevitable negative prospects. There is information that at one of the military councils, the now ex-President Mursi proposed to the army leadership to start bombing the facility under construction in Ethiopia. During Mubarak's rule, ships carrying construction equipment to Ethiopia were stopped by the Egyptian army, and it was announced to the world that the next batch of cargo for this project would be destroyed by all the forces of the Egyptian army. Since then, the project has been frozen.

Recently, at an emergency meeting of the Egyptian National Defense Council under the leadership of interim President Adli Mansour, politicians and leading experts discussed the consequences of the crisis and ways to minimize the negative consequences for Egypt if the Ethiopian dam is commissioned. Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of a group of national experts studying the implications of the dam, said that the dam could receive no more than 74 billion cubic meters of water, which, in turn, would be a disaster for Egypt: the country would lose 60% of agricultural land. Zawahiri added that the eventual destruction of the Renaissance Dam would lead to the collapse of the Aswan Dam, and in fact, the entire Egypt.

Mohamed Nassreddin, ex-Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation of Egypt, believes that the construction of the Ethiopian dam will indeed lead to extremely dangerous consequences and will have a devastating impact on the Aswan Dam. In his opinion, as soon as the facility in Ethiopia starts working, the depth of Aswan will begin to decline steadily, reaching a mark of 160 meters. In turn, this will lead to a drop in the amount of electricity generated by it by 30-40%.

Nasruddin is convinced that the construction of the Ethiopian Millennium Dam is a powerful tool in the political struggle for hegemony and influence on the African continent. According to the former minister, it all began with the triple aggression against Egypt in 1956, followed by Nasser's announcement of his intention to build the Aswan Dam and nationalize the Suez Canal. Then the United States sent a team of experts from the Bureau of Reclamation. Their task was to find places for the construction of 33 power electrical installations (and dams, respectively) on the banks of the Nile. Political challenge: foil plans to build the Aswan Dam and deprive Egypt of water. These experts presented their report in 1958, but the practical implementation was postponed indefinitely. And today, in the most difficult period in the history of the Egyptian state, this program to strangle Egypt was set in motion.

President of the Aswan Dam Builders Association, Saad Nasser, criticized the construction process of the Ethiopian dam. The project is being implemented under conditions of almost complete secrecy. None of the interested parties have any information either on the results of preliminary studies and recommendations, or technical and economic parameters. According to Nasser, all this secrecy is needed in order to hide the true consequences of the commissioning of this facility for the region until the last minute of construction. Especially in the actual volumes of water that will be withdrawn from the flow of the Aswan Dam as soon as the Renaissance Dam starts to work. He stressed that the Aswan Dam was built at a time when the countries bordering the Nile were acting in accordance with the circumstances of that time. All actions were based on the relevant international treaties.

World water scarcity map

The current Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Mohamed Abdul Muttaliba, said in an interview with Al-Monitor: “Egypt at all levels will strive to thwart this threat (to the operation of the Aswan Dam).

The dam was included in the list of the most important projects erected in the world in the 20th century and is on the first line out of 122 [according to an international report published in 2010]. It "allows Egypt to maintain strategic water reserves at the proper level."

In his speech, the minister said that on the anniversary of the construction of the Aswan Dam, he would like to assure all Egyptians that the functioning of the dam is under protection. This, in particular, is evidenced by Egypt's refusal to participate in the recent meetings in Khartoum due to the fact that Ethiopia does not guarantee water quotas for Egypt and the continuous effective functioning of the Aswan Dam after the commissioning of the Millennium Dam. But will Egypt be able to stop construction? Wouldn't war be the only way that one catastrophe (water shortage in Egypt) will turn into another - a large-scale regional conflict?

Egypt is experiencing a demographic boom. Already today, about 85 million people live in Egypt. Its population is projected to reach 135 million by 2050. But even today, there is not enough water in Egypt. It is easy to imagine what kind of humanitarian catastrophe the successful implementation of the Ethiopian project can lead to.